# 40 My conservative (small "c") Predilection

Without further punning, I'm enclosing my projections on Tuesday's results...which results we may not know, so the pundits say, until mid/late November.  I've assigned the "leaning" states' electoral votes to one or the other camps, and have come up with

Obama 287
Romney 251

I really don't think it will be that close, but I'm also trying to account for Ohio's electronic voting machines (at least some of which are apparently owned by Tagg Romney), Florida's historical incompetence in tallying votes, voter suppression laws in several states, and of course the Sandy-engendered difficulties in getting to the polling places in several northeastern states that tend to vote Democratic.

Here are my presumed state-by-state tallies.  If I'm correct, remember: you heard it here first.  If I'm incorrect...you don't remember where you heard it.

·        Alaska - 3, unchanged.

·        Alabama – 9, unchanged. 

·        Arizona - 11, an increase of 1 electoral vote.

·        Arkansas - 6, unchanged.

·        California - 55, unchanged.

·        Colorado - 9, unchanged.

·        Connecticut - 7, unchanged.

·        Delaware - 3, unchanged.

·        District of Columbia - 3, unchanged.

·        Florida - 29, an increase of 2 electoral votes.

·        Georgia - 16, an increase of 1 electoral vote.

·        Hawaii - 4, unchanged.

·        Idaho - 4, unchanged.

·        Illinois - 20, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.

·        Indiana - 11, unchanged.

·        Iowa - 6, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.

·        Kansas - 6, unchanged.

·        Kentucky - 8, unchanged.

·        Louisiana - 8, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.

·        Maine - 4, unchanged.

·        Maryland - 10, unchanged.

·        Massachusetts - 11, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.

·        Michigan - 16, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.

·        Minnesota - 10, unchanged. 

·        Mississippi - 6, unchanged.

·        Missouri - 10, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.

·        Montana - 3, unchanged.

·        Nebraska - 5, unchanged.

·        Nevada - 6, an increase of 1 electoral vote. 

·        New Hampshire - 4, unchanged. 

·        New Jersey - 14, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.

·        New Mexico - 5, unchanged. 

·        New York - 29, a decrease of 2 electoral votes.

·        North Carolina - 15, unchanged.

·        North Dakota - 3, unchanged.

·       Ohio - 18, a decrease of 2 electoral votes.

·        Oklahoma - 7, unchanged.

·        Oregon - 7, unchanged.

·        Pennsylvania - 20, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.

·        Rhode Island - 4, unchanged.

·        South Carolina - 9, an increase of 1 electoral vote.

·        South Dakota - 3, unchanged.

·        Tennessee - 11, unchanged.

·        Texas - 38, an increase of 4 electoral votes.

·        Utah - 6, an increase of 1 electoral vote.

·        Vermont - 3, unchanged.

·        Virginia - 13, unchanged.

·        Washington - 12, an increase of 1 electoral vote.

·        West Virginia - 5, unchanged.

·        Wisconsin - 10, unchanged.

·        Wyoming - 3, unchanged. 

Obama                        242                 

Leaning                         39

TOTAL                                     281

Romney                      180

Leaning                         77

TOTAL                                     257

                                               

Total                                        538

Some caveats:

1) I actually think Obama will win by more, but I've assigned FL, NC, VA, and CO to Romney because they have new registration laws and/or other problems that could adversely affect Blue turnout.

2) Despite the fact that OH also has several anti-Blue possibilities, the polls in Ohio have been consistently favoring Obama. Obviously, based on my mathematical calculations, if OH went Red...so would the presidency...unless some of the red-leaning states went blue.  Can I waltz around the rationale more delicately?

3) I gotta admit: I don't really trust all the machines and all the states' secretaries of state out there overseeing the election process.  I'm beginning to feel like we're a third world country needing outside objective observers watching us.  Oh.  Wait. We're going to HAVE outside objective observers watching us.

4) For those good folk out there who are thinking, 'We survived eight years of dubya; what does it matter if Romney gets in by a Supreme Court mandate or by false totals from a few states?' I reply: not all of us survived eight years of dubya.  Thousands of American and Allied troops died in Iraq and Afghanistan, and possibly hundreds of thousands of civilians did not survive the dubya machinations.  I do lay the blame at Alioto's and Scalia's and Thomas's door.  In addition, we had a horrible recession made worse by the Republican Party's refusal to put the American people ahead of the GOP's political chicanery.  I really don't relish the idea of the Republican party being rewarded for its indefensible inflexibility.  I'm still stewing over the Democrats' apparent choice not to emphasize Mitch McConnell's "Our Number One goal is to make sure Barack Obama is a one-term president" comment. 

Deep down I think Obama will get 300 or more electoral votes.  Frankly, however, I'll be happy with 270.  Best to all of you -- /RPW