Monday, November 12, 2012

# 41 TheInmatesAreTryingToRunTheAsylum

The following article just appeared from .  Please remember that these petitions are from citizens of the states, not from state officials.  In the past, only Texas has made any official noise about seceding (that I've heard of, at least), and that was the governor Rick Perry's running it up the flagpole to see if anyone would salute.  Yes, that is Rick Perry of "Does this ass make my truck look big" fame, from the Republican primary season.

I'm of two minds about these secession petitions.  Texas could probably survive, what with its oil and crops and large population. And that's fine with me.  They could then deal with the Mexican border all on their own, without our federal marshalls and troops.

The Blue states whose occasional citizen is petitioning don't need to secede, and probably won't.  But it's those other Red states (other than Texas) whose petitioning citizens I think really have their heads up their butts.  They are net takers of financial assistance from the feds, not net contributors to the fed.  If we let them secede (and, no, I'm not fully serious; just don't push too hard--it wouldn't take much for me to become serious with these particular states), we could likely come close to balancing the federal budget just from the savings from not financing their reactionary craziness.  But then we'd need to build a fence around what is basically most of the old Confederacy, to avoid illegal immigration from Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and the like.  I find it "funny" that Georgia has petitioned twice: they never could get things right the first time.

"Hell, No.  Let 'em Go!" I can already hear the chant at SEC football games.  And the cheers from the rest of us.  Enjoy the article.  It's probably not the last we'll hear of secession.

"Why should Vermont and Texas live under the same government" indeed.
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In the wake of last week's presidential election, thousands of Americans have signed petitions seeking permission for their states to peacefully secede from the United States. The petitions were filed on We the People, a government website.

States with citizens filing include Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. Oddly, folks from Georgia have filed twice. Even stranger, several of the petitions come from states that went for President Barack Obama.

The petitions are short and to the point. For example, a petition from the Volunteer State reads: "Peacefully grant the State of Tennessee to withdraw from the United States of America and create its own NEW government." Of all the petitions, Texas has the most signatures so far, with more than 23,000.

Of course, this is mostly a symbolic gesture. The odds of the American government granting any state permission to go its own way are on par with winning the lottery while getting hit by a meteor while seeing Bigfoot while finding gluten-free pizza that tastes like the real thing.

An article from WKRC quotes a University of Louisville political science professor who explained that these petitions aren't uncommon. Similar petitions were filed following the 2004 and 2008 elections. Still, should the petitions garner 25,000 signatures in a month, they will require an official response from the Obama administration.
From the We the People site:
The right to petition your government is guaranteed by the First Amendment of the United States Constitution. We the People provides a new way to petition the Obama Administration to take action on a range of important issues facing our country. We created We the People because we want to hear from you. If a petition gets enough support, White House staff will review it, ensure it's sent to the appropriate policy experts, and issue an official response.
Not everybody who wants to secede is polite enough to write a petition. Peter Morrison, treasurer of the Hardin County (Texas) Republican Party, wrote a post-election newsletter in which he urges the Lone Star State to leave the Union.
"We must contest every single inch of ground and delay the baby-murdering, tax-raising socialists at every opportunity. But in due time, the maggots will have eaten every morsel of flesh off of the rotting corpse of the Republic, and therein lies our opportunity... Why should Vermont and Texas live under the same government? Let each go her own way in peace, sign a free trade agreement among the states and we can avoid this gut-wrenching spectacle every four years."

Sunday, November 4, 2012

# 40 My conservative (small "c") Predilection

Without further punning, I'm enclosing my projections on Tuesday's results...which results we may not know, so the pundits say, until mid/late November.  I've assigned the "leaning" states' electoral votes to one or the other camps, and have come up with

Obama 287
Romney 251

I really don't think it will be that close, but I'm also trying to account for Ohio's electronic voting machines (at least some of which are apparently owned by Tagg Romney), Florida's historical incompetence in tallying votes, voter suppression laws in several states, and of course the Sandy-engendered difficulties in getting to the polling places in several northeastern states that tend to vote Democratic.

Here are my presumed state-by-state tallies.  If I'm correct, remember: you heard it here first.  If I'm incorrect...you don't remember where you heard it.

·        Alaska - 3, unchanged.
·        Alabama – 9, unchanged. 
·        Arizona - 11, an increase of 1 electoral vote.
·        Arkansas - 6, unchanged.
·        California - 55, unchanged.
·        Colorado - 9, unchanged.
·        Connecticut - 7, unchanged.
·        Delaware - 3, unchanged.
·        District of Columbia - 3, unchanged.
·        Florida - 29, an increase of 2 electoral votes.
·        Georgia - 16, an increase of 1 electoral vote.
·        Hawaii - 4, unchanged.
·        Idaho - 4, unchanged.
·        Illinois - 20, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.
·        Indiana - 11, unchanged.
·        Iowa - 6, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.
·        Kansas - 6, unchanged.
·        Kentucky - 8, unchanged.
·        Louisiana - 8, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.
·        Maine - 4, unchanged.
·        Maryland - 10, unchanged.
·        Massachusetts - 11, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.
·        Michigan - 16, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.
·        Minnesota - 10, unchanged
·        Mississippi - 6, unchanged.
·        Missouri - 10, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.
·        Montana - 3, unchanged.
·        Nebraska - 5, unchanged.
·        Nevada - 6, an increase of 1 electoral vote. 
·        New Hampshire - 4, unchanged
·        New Jersey - 14, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.
·        New Mexico - 5, unchanged. 
·        New York - 29, a decrease of 2 electoral votes.
·        North Carolina - 15, unchanged.
·        North Dakota - 3, unchanged.
·       Ohio - 18, a decrease of 2 electoral votes.
·        Oklahoma - 7, unchanged.
·        Oregon - 7, unchanged.
·        Pennsylvania - 20, a decrease of 1 electoral vote.
·        Rhode Island - 4, unchanged.
·        South Carolina - 9, an increase of 1 electoral vote.
·        South Dakota - 3, unchanged.
·        Tennessee - 11, unchanged.
·        Texas - 38, an increase of 4 electoral votes.
·        Utah - 6, an increase of 1 electoral vote.
·        Vermont - 3, unchanged.
·        Virginia - 13, unchanged.
·        Washington - 12, an increase of 1 electoral vote.
·        West Virginia - 5, unchanged.
·        Wisconsin - 10, unchanged.
·        Wyoming - 3, unchanged. 

Obama                        242                 
Leaning                         39
TOTAL                                     281

Romney                      180
Leaning                         77
TOTAL                                     257
                                               
Total                                        538

Some caveats:
1) I actually think Obama will win by more, but I've assigned FL, NC, VA, and CO to Romney because they have new registration laws and/or other problems that could adversely affect Blue turnout.
2) Despite the fact that OH also has several anti-Blue possibilities, the polls in Ohio have been consistently favoring Obama. Obviously, based on my mathematical calculations, if OH went Red...so would the presidency...unless some of the red-leaning states went blue.  Can I waltz around the rationale more delicately?
3) I gotta admit: I don't really trust all the machines and all the states' secretaries of state out there overseeing the election process.  I'm beginning to feel like we're a third world country needing outside objective observers watching us.  Oh.  Wait. We're going to HAVE outside objective observers watching us.
4) For those good folk out there who are thinking, 'We survived eight years of dubya; what does it matter if Romney gets in by a Supreme Court mandate or by false totals from a few states?' I reply: not all of us survived eight years of dubya.  Thousands of American and Allied troops died in Iraq and Afghanistan, and possibly hundreds of thousands of civilians did not survive the dubya machinations.  I do lay the blame at Alioto's and Scalia's and Thomas's door.  In addition, we had a horrible recession made worse by the Republican Party's refusal to put the American people ahead of the GOP's political chicanery.  I really don't relish the idea of the Republican party being rewarded for its indefensible inflexibility.  I'm still stewing over the Democrats' apparent choice not to emphasize Mitch McConnell's "Our Number One goal is to make sure Barack Obama is a one-term president" comment. 

Deep down I think Obama will get 300 or more electoral votes.  Frankly, however, I'll be happy with 270.  Best to all of you -- /RPW